Alaric Lester
Principal Consultant (Air Quality)
When the UK’s
first national air quality strategy was published in 1997, the country
finally had a framework for dealing with air pollution. European and national
policies and standards were expected to deal with the majority of problem
areas, while local authorities would sort localised hotspots. Road vehicles
were the predominant source of air pollution, but experts expected air quality
problems to be all but gone by 2010.
How did we progress? With carbon monoxide, the advent of
catalytic converters in the 1990s quickly removed any areas of high
concentrations. For PM10 – particles smaller than ten microns, which
are possibly of more concern for health across Europe than any other airborne
pollutant – progress has been slower. PM10 levels have fallen
steadily but slowly, and there are still more than 100 PM10 air
quality management areas (AQMAs) – areas that local authorities have identified
as not meeting set standards.
For nitrogen dioxide (NO2), progress has been
well short of even pessimistic expectations. Data from the national Automatic and Urban Rural
Network and London
Air Quality Network tell a story of diminishing returns. After some early progress
up to around 2005, NO2 levels have been static or even increasing
ever since. There are now well over 500 AQMAs for NO2
across the UK. The European Commission has threatened infraction proceedings
against the UK government for failing to deal with NO2 problems.
Road vehicles remain the predominant source of NO2 and PM10.
Fifteen years ago we thought we had a reasonable
understanding of vehicle emissions. Now, owing to rapid developments in engine and
emissions abatement technology, our understanding is arguably worse.
Regulations on vehicle emissions limits are based on idealised tests that bear
no resemblance to real-world driving; measured real-world vehicle emissions
data is scarce; and most experts agree that UK
and European emissions
factors for road vehicles are highly inaccurate.
Vehicle emissions factors are based on laboratory test bed
measurements. These tests give a fair approximation of road driving, but NO2
is not measured directly. We need better data on vehicle emissions to have
confidence that intervention measures will actually deliver.
Remote sensing equipment from the University of Leeds
Institute for Transport Studies recently
featured on the One Show. Remote sensing allows measurement of exhaust
emissions at a specific location. It gives a useful snapshot, but does not
provide information on how vehicle emissions perform over a range of driving
conditions. Instantaneous emissions models, such as Graz University of
Technology’s PHEM and TRL’s
IEM, do have emissions information over all driving conditions, but they
are models and based on very limited measured emissions data.
PEMS (portable emissions measurement system) equipment is
ideal for capturing large amounts of real-world emissions data. It can be installed
on vehicles driving on the road. Its restriction is expense – a
laboratory-standard PEMS costs around £250k. A few universities, such as
Imperial College, have experimental (less accurate) PEMS equipment and have
been capturing useful data. We need far more data, though, to produce reliable
emissions factors that could robustly test the effectiveness of measures such
as Boris Johnson’s proposed
ultra-low-emission zone. We need more data to challenge current policy and
bring about effective change. Might we see a European project collecting PEMS
data across the EU over a 12-month period (to allow for seasonal emissions
effects) and a team of experts mining the data to generate a new, robust set of
emissions factors that bears more than a passing resemblance to reality? Will
anyone propose it, and would Europe fund it? The air quality community has a
duty to build a robust case.